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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

152.92%

increased by 25.79%

1 Week

972,894,699,338,011.60%

increased by 972,894,699,337,884.50%

1 Month

19,444,234,106,798,855,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 19,444,234,106,798,855,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
47.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-48.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6863
17.93***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days