V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
152.92%
1 Week
972,894,699,338,011.60%
1 Month
19,444,234,106,798,855,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 47.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -48.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6863 | 17.93*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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