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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

224.92%

increased by 28.60%

1 Week

235.63%

increased by 39.31%

1 Month

257.61%

increased by 61.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5965
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4696
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1193
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8807

Persistence:

0.831

Half-life:

4 days