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V-Lab

Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

130.06%

decreased by 7.75%

1 Week

138.09%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

124.45%

decreased by 13.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0808
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3401
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0530
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0422
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5017
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0540

Persistence:

0.447

Half-life:

1 days