V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
224.92%
increased by 28.60%
1 Week
235.63%
increased by 39.31%
1 Month
257.61%
increased by 61.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5965 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4696 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1193 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8807 |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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