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Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

194.93%

decreased by 1.70%

1 Week

194.75%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Month

194.18%

decreased by 2.45%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.67
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9502
7.20***
γleverage0.0315
0.15

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.67
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9502
7.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0315
0.15

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days