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Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

154.33%

increased by 0.63%

1 Week

155.96%

increased by 2.26%

1 Month

160.85%

increased by 7.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 11, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.64
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9258
10.04***
γleverage0.0647
0.39

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9258
10.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0647
0.39

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days