V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
194.93%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
194.75%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Month
194.18%
decreased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9502 | 7.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0315 | 0.15 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9502 | 7.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0315 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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