V-Lab
Tradr 2X Short SMR Daily ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
228.04%
increased by 84.59%
1 Week
227.19%
increased by 83.74%
1 Month
224.31%
increased by 80.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.57 |
| αARCH | 0.1282 | 0.48 |
| βGARCH | 0.8575 | 7.75*** |
| γleverage | -0.0276 | -0.08 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1282 | 0.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8575 | 7.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0276 | -0.08 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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