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V-Lab
V-Lab

SLW Short Duration Income ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

2.03%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

2.04%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.07%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of SLW Short Duration Income ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 5, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 912 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~912 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0001
0.00
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9992
0.06
γleverage0.0000
0.00

0.999

Persistence

912d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0001
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9992
0.06
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

912 days