SLW Short Duration Income ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
2.03%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
2.04%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.07%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 912 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~912 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9992 | 0.06 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.999
Persistence912d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9992 | 0.06 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
912 days
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