V-Lab
SLW Short Duration Income ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
1.95%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
1.96%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.99%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 5, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 26659 trading days (~105.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~26659 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 1.0000 | 0.01 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence26659d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
26659 days
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