V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.66%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
20.81%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
21.36%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 238% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 16.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0299 | 14.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9243 | 494.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0712 | 13.48*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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