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State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

21.76%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

21.88%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

22.33%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 240% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 240% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0299
4.18***
αARCH0.0297
3.69***
βGARCH0.9245
123.81***
γleverage0.0712
3.38***

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0299
4.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0297
3.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9245
123.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0712
3.38***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days