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V-Lab

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

20.61%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

20.76%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

21.31%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 237% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0296
16.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0298
14.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9247
485.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0706
13.35***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days