State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.61%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
20.76%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
21.31%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 237% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0296 | 16.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0298 | 14.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9247 | 485.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0706 | 13.35*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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