V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
24.53%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
24.59%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
24.79%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 234% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0298 | 16.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0302 | 14.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9242 | 492.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0707 | 13.35*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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