V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.17%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
18.39%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
19.21%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 243% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 243% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 4.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0295 | 3.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9243 | 123.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0718 | 3.41*** |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0295 | 3.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9243 | 123.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0718 | 3.41*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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