State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
20.87%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
21.01%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
21.55%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 238% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 238% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 4.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0298 | 3.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9246 | 124.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0708 | 3.37*** |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 4.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0298 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9246 | 124.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0708 | 3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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