State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
20.36%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
20.52%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
21.10%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:06 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 240% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 240% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0298 | 4.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0296 | 3.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9246 | 124.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.0710 | 3.38*** |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0298 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0296 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9246 | 124.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0710 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
Other State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs