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V-Lab

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.66%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

20.81%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

21.36%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 238% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0299
16.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0299
14.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9243
494.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0712
13.48***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days