V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.76%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
21.88%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
22.33%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 240% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 240% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 4.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0297 | 3.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9245 | 123.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0712 | 3.38*** |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0297 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9245 | 123.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0712 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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