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V-Lab

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

24.53%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

24.59%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

24.79%

decreased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 234% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0298
16.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0302
14.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9242
492.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0707
13.35***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days