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State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

20.36%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

20.52%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

21.10%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 240% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 240% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0298
4.18***
αARCH0.0296
3.69***
βGARCH0.9246
124.16***
γleverage0.0710
3.38***

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0298
4.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0296
3.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9246
124.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0710
3.38***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days