V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
21.56%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
21.88%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
23.02%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 66 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2113 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0747 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9150 | 97.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 2.13** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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