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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

23.27%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

23.57%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

24.56%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4785
6.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0760
6.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8973
66.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0087
2.18**
γ2-0.0135
-1.78*

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days