V-Lab
iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
54.93%
decreased by 3.20%
1 Week
53.34%
decreased by 4.79%
1 Month
48.22%
decreased by 9.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1742 | 7.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0759 | 5.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8804 | 50.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1007 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 0.2410 | 2.58*** |
| γ3 | -0.3179 | -4.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.3468 | 6.11*** |
| γ5 | -0.2565 | -4.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.1241 | 2.28** |
| γ7 | -0.0946 | -1.38 |
| γ8 | 0.1447 | 1.70* |
0.956
Persistence16d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1742 | 7.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0759 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 50.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1007 | -1.81* |
| γ2 | 0.2410 | 2.58*** |
| γ3 | -0.3179 | -4.72*** |
| γ4 | 0.3468 | 6.11*** |
| γ5 | -0.2565 | -4.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.1241 | 2.28** |
| γ7 | -0.0946 | -1.38 |
| γ8 | 0.1447 | 1.70* |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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