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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

54.93%

decreased by 3.20%

1 Week

53.34%

decreased by 4.79%

1 Month

48.22%

decreased by 9.91%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1742
7.04***
αARCH0.0759
5.75***
βGARCH0.8804
50.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.1007
-1.81*
γ20.2410
2.58***
γ3-0.3179
-4.72***
γ40.3468
6.11***
γ5-0.2565
-4.91***
γ60.1241
2.28**
γ7-0.0946
-1.38
γ80.1447
1.70*

0.956

Persistence

16d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1742
7.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0759
5.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8804
50.31***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.1007
-1.81*
γ20.2410
2.58***
γ3-0.3179
-4.72***
γ40.3468
6.11***
γ5-0.2565
-4.91***
γ60.1241
2.28**
γ7-0.0946
-1.38
γ80.1447
1.70*

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

16 days