iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
23.27%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
23.57%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
24.56%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4785 | 6.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0760 | 6.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8973 | 66.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0087 | 2.18** |
| γ2 | -0.0135 | -1.78* |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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