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V-Lab

State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

23.33%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

23.91%

increased by 0.84%

1 Month

25.85%

increased by 2.78%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5572
8.63***
αARCH0.1001
10.72***
βGARCH0.8807
88.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0059
5.92***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5572
8.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1001
10.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8807
88.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0059
5.92***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days