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V-Lab

State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

36.92%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Week

37.11%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Month

36.88%

decreased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8280
145.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1865
36.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0108
4.88***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0543
5.16***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9408
84.48***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days