State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.92%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
37.11%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Month
36.88%
decreased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8280 | 145.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1865 | 36.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0108 | 4.88*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0543 | 5.16*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9408 | 84.48*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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