State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
33.78%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
33.35%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
31.94%
decreased by 2.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8728 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0999 | 9.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8667 | 68.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2509 | -6.01*** |
| γ2 | 0.3933 | 6.65*** |
| γ3 | -0.2101 | -4.97*** |
| γ4 | 0.0961 | 2.19** |
| γ5 | -0.0050 | -0.11 |
| γ6 | -0.0408 | -0.97 |
| γ7 | 0.0120 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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