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V-Lab

State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

33.78%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

33.35%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

31.94%

decreased by 2.04%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8728
5.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0999
9.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8667
68.76***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2509
-6.01***
γ20.3933
6.65***
γ3-0.2101
-4.97***
γ40.0961
2.19**
γ5-0.0050
-0.11
γ6-0.0408
-0.97
γ70.0120
0.39

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

20 days