V-Lab
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
28.27%
increased by 2.04%
1 Week
28.15%
increased by 1.92%
1 Month
27.74%
increased by 1.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8754 | 5.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0995 | 9.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8665 | 68.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2469 | -5.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.3878 | 6.62*** |
| γ3 | -0.2085 | -5.01*** |
| γ4 | 0.0960 | 2.22** |
| γ5 | -0.0049 | -0.11 |
| γ6 | -0.0423 | -1.02 |
| γ7 | 0.0140 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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