V-Lab
Wisdomtree 1-3 YR Ladd TR FD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
1.48%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.45%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
1.40%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2804 | 7.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0322 | 0.88 |
| βGARCH | 0.8584 | 4.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0925 | 2.12** |
0.891
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2804 | 7.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 0.88 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8584 | 4.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0925 | 2.12** |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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