Wisdomtree 1-3 YR Ladd TR FD APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
1.43%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.43%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.43%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2024 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.72 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 1.43 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0014 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9860 | 330.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | |
δ power Transformation power | 2.7168 | 11.48*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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