V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.07%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
15.12%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
15.30%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0211 | 28.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0906 | 40.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9049 | 409.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6159 | 29.27*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1130 | 38.54*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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