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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.07%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

15.12%

decreased by 1.03%

1 Month

15.30%

decreased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0211
28.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0906
40.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9049
409.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6159
29.27***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1130
38.54***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days