V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.15%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
14.20%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
14.37%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 353% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 353% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0159 | 4.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0328 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8928 | 97.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.1157 | 4.65*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0159 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0328 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8928 | 97.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1157 | 4.65*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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