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State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

19.05%

increased by 3.41%

1 Week

18.95%

increased by 3.31%

1 Month

18.60%

increased by 2.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 307% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 307% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0159
5.04***
αARCH0.0363
3.30***
βGARCH0.8917
96.74***
γleverage0.1117
4.38***

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0159
5.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0363
3.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8917
96.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1117
4.38***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days