V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.22%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
16.20%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
16.13%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 355% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0159 | 19.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0327 | 12.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8929 | 390.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1160 | 18.68*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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