V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
12.84%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
12.93%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
13.27%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 351% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 351% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0159 | 4.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0329 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8927 | 97.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.1155 | 4.64*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0159 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0329 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8927 | 97.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1155 | 4.64*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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