State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
19.05%
increased by 3.41%
1 Week
18.95%
increased by 3.31%
1 Month
18.60%
increased by 2.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 307% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 307% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0159 | 5.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0363 | 3.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8917 | 96.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.1117 | 4.38*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0159 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0363 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8917 | 96.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1117 | 4.38*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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