State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.14%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
17.09%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
16.92%
decreased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 364% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0157 | 19.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0318 | 12.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8938 | 391.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1160 | 18.72*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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