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State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

12.84%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

12.93%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

13.27%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:34 AM UTC

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graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 351% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 351% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0159
4.98***
αARCH0.0329
3.15***
βGARCH0.8927
97.35***
γleverage0.1155
4.64***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0159
4.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0329
3.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8927
97.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1155
4.64***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days