V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.73%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
13.80%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
14.02%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 352% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 352% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0159 | 4.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0328 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8927 | 97.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.1157 | 4.65*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0159 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0328 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8927 | 97.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1157 | 4.65*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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