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State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.46%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

14.65%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

15.10%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.0262
2.26**
βGARCH0.8380
50.47***
γleverage0.1397
7.58***
λ₁tau intercept0.0093
1.61
λ₂forecast adj.0.0602
2.02**
λ₃tau persistence0.9276
26.20***

0.934

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0262
2.26**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8380
50.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1397
7.58***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
1.61
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0602
2.02**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9276
26.20***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days