V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.46%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
14.65%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
15.10%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0262 | 2.26** |
| βGARCH | 0.8380 | 50.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.1397 | 7.58*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0093 | 1.61 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0602 | 2.02** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9276 | 26.20*** |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0262 | 2.26** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 50.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1397 | 7.58*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 1.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0602 | 2.02** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9276 | 26.20*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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