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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

16.78%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

16.83%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

16.95%

decreased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0258
8.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8379
138.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1403
25.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0093
5.18***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0612
4.23***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9267
55.58***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days