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State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

19.64%

increased by 3.98%

1 Week

19.47%

increased by 3.81%

1 Month

19.17%

increased by 3.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 23, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0280
2.39**
βGARCH0.8354
48.71***
γleverage0.1358
7.37***
λ₁tau intercept0.0130
1.53
λ₂forecast adj.0.0888
2.10**
λ₃tau persistence0.8947
17.65***

0.931

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0280
2.39**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8354
48.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1358
7.37***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0130
1.53
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0888
2.10**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8947
17.65***

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days