V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.78%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
16.83%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
16.95%
decreased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0258 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8379 | 138.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1403 | 25.89*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 5.18*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0612 | 4.23*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9267 | 55.58*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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