V-Lab
Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.11%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
13.82%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
15.63%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7479 | 84.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3155 | 33.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0118 | 3.52*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0490 | 4.91*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9411 | 75.13*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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