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V-Lab

Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

13.11%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

13.82%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

15.63%

increased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7479
84.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3155
33.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0118
3.52***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0490
4.91***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9411
75.13***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days