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V-Lab

Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.10%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

15.18%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

15.44%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0866
7.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1141
22.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9731
249.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2974
5.73***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days