Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.10%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
15.18%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
15.44%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0866 | 7.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1141 | 22.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9731 | 249.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2974 | 5.73*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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