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V-Lab

Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.64%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

15.69%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

15.85%

decreased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0877
7.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1135
22.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9734
253.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3700
5.64***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days