V-Lab
Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.38%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
13.79%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
15.17%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0342 | 14.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 4.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8369 | 173.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2501 | 20.99*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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