Doubleline Shiller Cape US Equities ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.22%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
15.53%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
16.61%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0343 | 14.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0221 | 4.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8357 | 171.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2521 | 21.04*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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