iShares China Large-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
21.91%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
22.19%
increased by 1.03%
1 Month
23.18%
increased by 2.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0501 | 4.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0479 | 2.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9098 | 70.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.0579 | 1.73* |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0501 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0479 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9098 | 70.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0579 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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