iShares China Large-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
22.29%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
22.56%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
23.53%
increased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 121% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0509 | 16.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0483 | 11.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9091 | 277.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0584 | 6.94*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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