V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.34%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
20.69%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
21.91%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0506 | 4.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0481 | 2.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9094 | 69.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.0583 | 1.74* |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0506 | 4.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0481 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9094 | 69.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0583 | 1.74* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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