V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
22.75%
increased by 1.58%
1 Week
22.94%
increased by 1.77%
1 Month
23.61%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5127 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 30.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 515.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5288 | 4.71*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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