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V-Lab

iShares China Large-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

19.05%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

19.36%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

20.46%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares China Large-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 8, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 59-day half-lifev = 7.54 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.4893
1.64
αARCH0.0697
7.62***
βGARCH0.9884
128.95***
νDF7.5384
1.18

0.988

Persistence

59d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.4893
1.64
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0697
7.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9884
128.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5384
1.18

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days