V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.05%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
19.36%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
20.46%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 59-day half-lifev = 7.54 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4893 | 1.64 |
| αARCH | 0.0697 | 7.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9884 | 128.95*** |
| νDF | 7.5384 | 1.18 |
0.988
Persistence59d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4893 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 7.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 128.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5384 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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