V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.38%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
18.72%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
19.92%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5030 | 6.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0699 | 30.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 515.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5389 | 4.72*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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