V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
21.05%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
21.77%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
24.12%
increased by 2.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7033 | 5.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0835 | 5.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8969 | 57.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0372 | -3.40*** |
| γ2 | 0.0598 | 3.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.0313 | -3.54*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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