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V-Lab

iShares China Large-Cap ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

24.39%

increased by 1.13%

1 Week

24.93%

increased by 1.67%

1 Month

26.73%

increased by 3.47%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares China Large-Cap ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 8, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6965
5.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0836
5.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8963
56.79***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0384
-3.50***
γ20.0619
3.75***
γ3-0.0326
-3.67***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days