V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
24.39%
increased by 1.13%
1 Week
24.93%
increased by 1.67%
1 Month
26.73%
increased by 3.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6965 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 5.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8963 | 56.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0384 | -3.50*** |
| γ2 | 0.0619 | 3.75*** |
| γ3 | -0.0326 | -3.67*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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