V-Lab
TDAQ Lift ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
27.84%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
28.27%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
29.06%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8282 | 5.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0293 | 0.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.8407 | 3.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.9937 | -0.93 |
0.870
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8282 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 0.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8407 | 3.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.9937 | -0.93 |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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