TDAQ Lift ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
42.79%
increased by 0.48%
1 Week
41.34%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
37.62%
decreased by 4.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8631 | 6.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0566 | 0.95 |
| βGARCH | 0.8605 | 7.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5942 | -0.90 |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8631 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0566 | 0.95 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8605 | 7.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5942 | -0.90 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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