V-Lab
TDAQ Lift ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
25.86%
increased by 1.58%
1 Week
26.46%
increased by 2.18%
1 Month
27.45%
increased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2053 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8136 | 30.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 508.90*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 3.53*** |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs