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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.30%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

11.76%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

13.33%

increased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.95 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0342
37.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0937
33.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9001
342.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.9669
24.26***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9454
39.00***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days