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iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

22.21%

increased by 1.16%

1 Week

22.31%

increased by 1.26%

1 Month

22.64%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.48 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 255% more than positive returnsδ = 1.48 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0295
5.76***
αARCH0.0829
7.92***
βGARCH0.9101
92.62***
γleverage0.4050
4.55***
δpower1.4757
9.92***

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0295
5.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
7.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9101
92.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4050
4.55***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4757
9.92***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days