iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
22.21%
1 Week
22.31%
1 Month
22.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 255% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.48 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0295 | 5.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0829 | 7.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9101 | 92.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.4050 | 4.55*** |
| δpower | 1.4757 | 9.92*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0295 | 5.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 7.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9101 | 92.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4050 | 4.55*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4757 | 9.92*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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