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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.28%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

13.70%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

14.87%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9448
6.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0979
8.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8548
57.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0224
-0.53
γ2-0.0340
-0.51
γ30.1800
3.62***
γ4-0.2577
-6.05***
γ50.1855
4.36***
γ6-0.0133
-0.28
γ7-0.0790
-1.67*
γ80.0535
1.58

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days