V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.74%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
14.10%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
15.11%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9459 | 6.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0977 | 8.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8553 | 57.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0233 | -0.55 |
| γ2 | -0.0320 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | 0.1779 | 3.58*** |
| γ4 | -0.2563 | -6.03*** |
| γ5 | 0.1855 | 4.38*** |
| γ6 | -0.0141 | -0.30 |
| γ7 | -0.0790 | -1.69* |
| γ8 | 0.0542 | 1.62 |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9459 | 6.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 8.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8553 | 57.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0233 | -0.55 |
| γ2 | -0.0320 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | 0.1779 | 3.58*** |
| γ4 | -0.2563 | -6.03*** |
| γ5 | 0.1855 | 4.38*** |
| γ6 | -0.0141 | -0.30 |
| γ7 | -0.0790 | -1.69* |
| γ8 | 0.0542 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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