V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
13.28%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
13.70%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
14.87%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9448 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0979 | 8.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8548 | 57.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0224 | -0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.0340 | -0.51 |
| γ3 | 0.1800 | 3.62*** |
| γ4 | -0.2577 | -6.05*** |
| γ5 | 0.1855 | 4.36*** |
| γ6 | -0.0133 | -0.28 |
| γ7 | -0.0790 | -1.67* |
| γ8 | 0.0535 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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