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iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

15.88%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

16.15%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

17.07%

increased by 0.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 259% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 259% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0311
4.78***
αARCH0.0355
3.39***
βGARCH0.9044
99.16***
γleverage0.0920
4.06***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0311
4.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0355
3.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9044
99.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0920
4.06***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days