iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
17.16%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
17.37%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
18.12%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 259% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 259% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 4.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0355 | 3.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9044 | 99.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.0919 | 4.05*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 3.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9044 | 99.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0919 | 4.05*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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