V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.54%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
14.87%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
16.01%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 251% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0314 | 19.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0362 | 13.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9041 | 394.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0910 | 15.93*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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