V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
15.88%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
16.15%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
17.07%
increased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 259% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 259% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 4.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0355 | 3.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9044 | 99.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.0920 | 4.06*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 3.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9044 | 99.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0920 | 4.06*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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