iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
17.12%
increased by 1.49%
1 Week
17.33%
increased by 1.70%
1 Month
18.08%
increased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 261% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 261% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 4.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0352 | 3.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9047 | 99.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0919 | 4.07*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0352 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9047 | 99.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0919 | 4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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