V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
13.48%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
13.86%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
15.18%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 258% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0314 | 19.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0357 | 13.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9040 | 395.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0923 | 16.24*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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