V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.92%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
16.16%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
17.03%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0255 | 7.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1124 | 30.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8776 | 302.32*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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