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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

39.35%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Week

39.40%

decreased by 1.55%

1 Month

39.58%

decreased by 1.37%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 187 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0300
6.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1468
35.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8495
268.14***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

187 days