Invesco DB Energy Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
36.26%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
36.16%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
35.79%
decreased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 67% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0317 | 15.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0833 | 19.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9167 | 240.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1722 | 6.03*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4675 | 27.06*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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