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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

36.26%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

36.16%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Month

35.79%

decreased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 67% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0317
15.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0833
19.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9167
240.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1722
6.03***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4675
27.06***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days