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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

37.22%

decreased by 1.65%

1 Week

37.11%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Month

36.72%

decreased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 57% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0371
15.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0621
11.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9105
279.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0356
4.33***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days