V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.94%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
36.84%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
36.46%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0349 | 15.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0584 | 10.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9155 | 275.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0339 | 4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
Other Invesco DB Energy Fund Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs