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Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

37.97%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

37.86%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

37.46%

decreased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0362
3.79***
αARCH0.0620
2.83***
βGARCH0.9115
70.99***
γleverage0.0346
1.07

0.991

Persistence

75d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0362
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0620
2.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9115
70.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0346
1.07

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days