V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
37.22%
decreased by 1.65%
1 Week
37.11%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Month
36.72%
decreased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 57% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0371 | 15.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0621 | 11.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9105 | 279.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0356 | 4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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