V-Lab
Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
48.26%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Week
48.01%
decreased by 2.42%
1 Month
47.04%
decreased by 3.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 56% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0366 | 15.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 11.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9109 | 281.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0350 | 4.26*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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