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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

36.94%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

36.84%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Month

36.46%

decreased by 0.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0349
15.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0584
10.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9155
275.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0339
4.16***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days