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V-Lab

Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

48.26%

decreased by 2.17%

1 Week

48.01%

decreased by 2.42%

1 Month

47.04%

decreased by 3.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Energy Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 56% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0366
15.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0623
11.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9109
281.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0350
4.26***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days