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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.36%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

17.60%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

18.47%

increased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 328% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0339
16.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0307
9.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9050
405.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1007
17.00***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days