iShares MSCI Germany ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.36%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
17.60%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
18.47%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 328% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0339 | 16.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0307 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9050 | 405.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1007 | 17.00*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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