V-Lab
iShares MSCI Germany ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.34%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
16.63%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
17.63%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 333% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 333% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0337 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0304 | 2.41** |
| βGARCH | 0.9050 | 101.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.1013 | 4.28*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0337 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0304 | 2.41** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9050 | 101.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1013 | 4.28*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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