V-Lab
iShares MSCI Germany ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.23%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
13.68%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
15.19%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 333% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 16.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 9.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9049 | 406.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1014 | 17.13*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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