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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

16.34%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

16.63%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

17.63%

increased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 333% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 333% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0337
4.05***
αARCH0.0304
2.41**
βGARCH0.9050
101.73***
γleverage0.1013
4.28***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0337
4.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0304
2.41**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9050
101.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1013
4.28***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days