V-Lab
iShares MSCI Germany ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.81%
increased by 1.11%
1 Week
15.06%
increased by 1.36%
1 Month
15.94%
increased by 2.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 7.74 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1980 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.0756 | 8.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9889 | 178.95*** |
| νDF | 7.7419 | 1.64 |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1980 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0756 | 8.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 178.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7419 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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