iShares MSCI Germany ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
16.33%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
16.52%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
17.23%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2128 | 8.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0756 | 35.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 713.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7201 | 6.57*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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