V-Lab
iShares MSCI Germany ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.99%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
14.27%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
15.27%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2029 | 8.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0757 | 35.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9888 | 713.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7280 | 6.56*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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