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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.81%

increased by 1.11%

1 Week

15.06%

increased by 1.36%

1 Month

15.94%

increased by 2.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 7.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1980
2.09**
αARCH0.0756
8.90***
βGARCH0.9889
178.95***
νDF7.7419
1.64

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1980
2.09**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0756
8.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
178.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7419
1.64

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days