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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

17.54%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

17.70%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

18.26%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2114
8.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0753
35.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
718.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7398
6.54***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days