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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Germany ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.44%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

14.75%

increased by 1.20%

1 Month

15.85%

increased by 2.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Germany ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 50 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1056
7.85***
αARCH0.0885
8.82***
βGARCH0.8976
89.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
1.48

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1056
7.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0885
8.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8976
89.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
1.48

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days