V-Lab
Innovator Growth-100 Dual Directional 5 Buffer ETF - Quarterly Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
2.87%
decreased by 3.25%
1 Week
1.87%
decreased by 4.25%
1 Month
1.22%
decreased by 4.90%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4416 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2549 | 1.84* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1998 | 0.57 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -128.6418 | -0.90 |
| γ2 | 235.0786 | 1.02 |
| γ3 | -433.0152 | -2.18** |
| γ4 | 484.6676 | 2.43** |
| γ5 | 176.8040 | 1.03 |
| γ6 | -554.4832 | -5.79*** |
Persistence:
0.455
Half-life:
1 days
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