Skip to main content
V-Lab

Innovator Growth-100 Dual Directional 5 Buffer ETF - Quarterly GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

10.80%

decreased by 4.15%

1 Week

10.76%

decreased by 4.19%

1 Month

10.62%

decreased by 4.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Innovator Growth-100 Dual Directional 5 Buffer ETF - Quarterly GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3400
5.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2958
22.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9860
363.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9189
4.71***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days