V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.27%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
11.65%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
12.81%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2017 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0638 | 9.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 22.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9681 | 251.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1994 | 4.43*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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