V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.01%
increased by 0.55%
1 Week
12.32%
increased by 0.86%
1 Month
13.28%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 8.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0573 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.1324 | 5.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9680 | 63.94*** |
| νDF | 8.3012 | 1.10 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0573 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9680 | 63.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3012 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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