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Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

11.04%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Week

11.44%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

12.64%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC

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graph of Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 8.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0525
2.53**
αARCH0.1324
5.75***
βGARCH0.9680
65.59***
νDF8.4396
1.09

0.968

Persistence

21d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0525
2.53**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1324
5.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9680
65.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4396
1.09

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days