Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.71%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
12.04%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
13.07%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 8.53 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0486 | 2.57** |
| αARCH | 0.1329 | 5.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9679 | 66.52*** |
| νDF | 8.5302 | 1.09 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0486 | 2.57** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1329 | 5.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9679 | 66.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5302 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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