V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
12.21%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
12.71%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
14.30%
increased by 1.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1351 | 6.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8389 | 37.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.5521 | 5.55*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1351 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8389 | 37.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5521 | 5.55*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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