V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
12.90%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
13.29%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
14.60%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2017 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 0.86 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0338 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1080 | 5.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8911 | 49.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8384 | 4.65*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8620 | 5.48*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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