Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
10.97%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
11.43%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
12.57%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7816 | 26.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.2535 | 7.35*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0557 | 1.65* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1602 | 1.96** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7914 | 7.55*** |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7816 | 26.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2535 | 7.35*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0557 | 1.65* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1602 | 1.96** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7914 | 7.55*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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