V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Equal Weight US Large Cap Equity ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
10.01%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
10.77%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
13.29%
increased by 3.40%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0342 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.3341 | 6.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6592 | 22.94*** |
0.993
Persistence103d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0342 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3341 | 6.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6592 | 22.94*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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