V-Lab
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.64%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
13.28%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
15.47%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0390 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.1541 | 8.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8370 | 74.35*** |
0.991
Persistence78d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0390 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1541 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8370 | 74.35*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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