V-Lab
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.94%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
19.24%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
20.28%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 217% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0438 | 19.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0441 | 10.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8935 | 354.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0956 | 12.99*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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