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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

12.90%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

13.54%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

15.63%

increased by 2.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 222% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
19.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0437
10.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8932
355.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0973
13.23***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days