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iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.54%

increased by 2.89%

1 Week

19.81%

increased by 3.16%

1 Month

20.76%

increased by 4.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 222% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 222% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0433
4.85***
αARCH0.0437
2.52**
βGARCH0.8933
89.06***
γleverage0.0971
3.31***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
4.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0437
2.52**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8933
89.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0971
3.31***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days