V-Lab
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.90%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
13.54%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
15.63%
increased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 222% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 19.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0437 | 10.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 355.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0973 | 13.23*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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