iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
21.32%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
21.52%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
22.23%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 223% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 223% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0433 | 4.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0435 | 2.51** |
| βGARCH | 0.8935 | 89.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.0970 | 3.31*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8935 | 89.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0970 | 3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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