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iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

21.32%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Week

21.52%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

22.23%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 223% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 223% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0433
4.85***
αARCH0.0435
2.51**
βGARCH0.8935
89.19***
γleverage0.0970
3.31***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
4.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0435
2.51**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8935
89.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0970
3.31***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days