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iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.31%

decreased by 1.03%

1 Week

25.38%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Month

25.61%

decreased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 223% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 223% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0434
4.85***
αARCH0.0436
2.52**
βGARCH0.8933
89.13***
γleverage0.0972
3.31***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0434
4.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0436
2.52**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8933
89.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0972
3.31***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days