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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.19%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

16.51%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

17.73%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 173% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0204
9.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1728
31.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9825
929.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0802
-16.37***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days