iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
7.64%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
7.68%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
7.87%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0098 | -12.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1321 | 26.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 1,345.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0001 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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