iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
8.01%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
8.06%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
8.23%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0035 | 14.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0580 | 30.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9340 | 486.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0075 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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