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V-Lab

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

8.01%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

8.06%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

8.23%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0035
14.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0580
30.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9340
486.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0075
-0.49

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days