V-Lab
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.94%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
24.11%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
24.73%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.55) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0205 | 2.22** |
| αARCH | 0.0884 | 10.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8979 | 109.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.5541 | 5.85*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0205 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 10.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8979 | 109.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5541 | 5.85*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
Other iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on ETFs