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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

15.20%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

15.21%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

15.26%

decreased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.49) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0002
0.22
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0869
41.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8912
387.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4891
31.67***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days