V-Lab
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
15.20%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
15.21%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
15.26%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.49) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 0.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 41.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8912 | 387.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4891 | 31.67*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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