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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

23.84%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

23.87%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

23.99%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.44) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0116
7.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0846
41.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9043
456.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4430
19.88***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days