iShares MSCI Japan ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
23.84%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
23.87%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
23.99%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.44) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0116 | 7.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0846 | 41.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9043 | 456.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4430 | 19.88*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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