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iShares MSCI Japan ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.63%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

17.77%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

18.31%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 217 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~217 daysv = 7.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.3228
1.91*
αARCH0.0740
16.37***
βGARCH0.9968
617.22***
νDF7.3254
3.05***

0.997

Persistence

217d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3228
1.91*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
16.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9968
617.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3254
3.05***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

217 days