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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Japan ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

20.42%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

20.53%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Month

20.94%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Japan ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 224 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.4220
7.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0739
65.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9969
2,556.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3360
12.22***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

224 days