V-Lab
iShares MSCI Japan ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
20.42%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
20.53%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
20.94%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 224 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4220 | 7.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 65.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 2,556.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3360 | 12.22*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
224 days
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