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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

36.68%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

36.69%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

36.71%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 7.49 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.3604
0.20
αARCH0.0124
0.02
βGARCH0.9539
0.36
νDF7.4851
0.01

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.3604
0.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0124
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9539
0.36
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4851
0.01

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days